Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CGY went from 48% to 45% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- William NylanderPoints1
Flames- Matvei GridinGoals2
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Matvei GridinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:21Martin Pospisil Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Gridin (4), Simon Nemec (5)2–5
- P318:35Joel Farabee Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (8), Yan Kuznetsov (2)2–4
- P36:06William Nylander Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (8), Auston Matthews (11)2–3
- P212:54Easton Cowan Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (2), Morgan Rielly (10)1–3
- P20:25Matvei Gridin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (3), Devin Cooley (1)0–3
- P111:50Mikael Backlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (7), Joel Farabee (8)0–2
- P110:05Matvei Gridin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (2), Simon Nemec (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Matvei Gridin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (2), Simon Nemec (4)TOR 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P111:50Mikael Backlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (7), Joel Farabee (8)TOR 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 61% → 76% +14CGY 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P20:25Matvei Gridin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zayne Parekh (3), Devin Cooley (1)TOR 0 – 3 CGY · CGY 79% → 89% +11CGY 79% → 89%+11 pts
- P212:54Easton Cowan Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Troy Stecher (2), Morgan Rielly (10)TOR 1 – 3 CGY · TOR 6% → 16% +10TOR 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P36:06William Nylander Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (8), Auston Matthews (11)TOR 2 – 3 CGY · TOR 7% → 24% +17TOR 7% → 24%+17 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / CGY +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −1 | Key absences: John Tavares, Mikael Backlund |
| Elo ratings | CGY +9 Elo | CGY 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.930th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.7 | Margin | −1.630th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 87.5%28th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 32 |
| 11th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 32 |
| 19th of 321486 | Elo rating | 145429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–6 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–0 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.