Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Michael McCarronGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Michael McCarronPoints1
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Joel FarabeePoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:39Michael McCarron Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1), Jonas Brodin (3)1–2
- P114:06Joel Farabee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Matt Coronato (4)0–2
- P110:49Aydar Suniev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (1)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:49Aydar Suniev Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (1)MIN 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 37% → 53% +16CGY 37% → 53%+16 pts
- P114:06Joel Farabee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Matt Coronato (4)MIN 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 54% → 69% +16CGY 54% → 69%+16 pts
- P34:39Michael McCarron Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1), Jonas Brodin (3)MIN 1 – 2 CGY · MIN 10% → 30% +19MIN 10% → 30%+19 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Wild 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML MIN -205 / CGY +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 58.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- CGY +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Mikael Backlund, Nick Foligno |
| Elo ratings | MIN +58 Elo | MIN 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 32 |
| 6th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 4.631st of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −2.532nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.3% | Shot share | 50.3%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 84.7%32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 322–4 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 32 |
| 7th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 6th of 321535 | Elo rating | 144730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–5 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.