Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals1
- Nicolas DeslauriersAssists1
- Jalen ChatfieldPoints1
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Morgan FrostAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:32Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (2), Jacob Middleton (1)2–3
- P219:56Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (3), Sebastian Aho (8)2–2
- P219:39Morgan Frost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zayne Parekh (2), Joel Farabee (5)1–2
- P218:30Matvei Gridin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (3)1–1
- P26:09Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Eric Robinson (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:09Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Eric Robinson (4)CAR 1 – 0 CGY · CAR 62% → 79% +17CAR 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P218:30Matvei Gridin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (3)CAR 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 20% → 40% +21CGY 20% → 40%+21 pts
- P219:39Morgan Frost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Zayne Parekh (2), Joel Farabee (5)CAR 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 41% → 65% +25CGY 41% → 65%+25 pts
- P219:56Jalen Chatfield Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaccob Slavin (3), Sebastian Aho (8)CAR 2 – 2 CGY · CAR 35% → 59% +25CAR 35% → 59%+25 pts
- P315:32Yegor Sharangovich Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (2), Jacob Middleton (1)CAR 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 46% → 89% +43CGY 46% → 89%+43 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 66%
- ML CAR -218 / CGY +180
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 63.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -192
- CGY +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −5 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +95 Elo | CAR 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 63.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.030th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 5.032nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.4 | Margin | −3.032nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3260.2% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 83.0%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 325–0 | Road vs home | 0–331st of 32 |
| 29th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 32 |
| 1st of 321592 | Elo rating | 144430th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 4–2 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.