Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Justin HollGoals1
- Ryan LeonardAssists2
- Ryan LeonardPoints2
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:33Mark Jankowski Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (5), Sebastian Aho (7)2–4
- P313:56Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (4)2–3
- P218:49Eric Robinson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (7), Sean Walker (6)2–2
- P26:39Justin Holl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (5), Ryan Leonard (4)2–1
- P23:58Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Poke, assists: William Carrier (6), Sebastian Aho (6)1–1
- P19:26Boone Jenner Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:26Boone Jenner Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (3)WSH 1 – 0 CAR · WSH 42% → 58% +16WSH 42% → 58%+16 pts
- P23:58Andrei Svechnikov Goal (5) Poke, assists: William Carrier (6), Sebastian Aho (6)WSH 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 38% → 56% +19CAR 38% → 56%+19 pts
- P26:39Justin Holl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (5), Ryan Leonard (4)WSH 2 – 1 CAR · WSH 44% → 63% +19WSH 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P218:49Eric Robinson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (7), Sean Walker (6)WSH 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 31% → 55% +24CAR 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P313:56Andrei Svechnikov Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (4)WSH 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 53% → 89% +36CAR 53% → 89%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 58%
- ML WSH +130 / CAR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +90 Elo | CAR 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.47th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.44th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 59.8%1st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.7%21st of 32 |
| 9th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321523 | Opponent Elo | 147729th of 32 |
| 9th of 321526 | Elo rating | 15881st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–9 CAR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.
- Oct 2WSH 5 @ CAR 2Picked CAR 57%Miss
- Jan 31CAR 3 @ WSH 4Picked CAR 63%Miss
- Dec 11CAR 3 @ WSH 2Picked CAR 51%Hit
- Nov 11WSH 4 @ CAR 1Picked CAR 57%Miss
- May 15CAR 3 @ WSH 1PlayoffsPicked CAR 59%Hit
- May 12WSH 2 @ CAR 5PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 10WSH 0 @ CAR 4PlayoffsPicked CAR 68%Hit
- May 8CAR 1 @ WSH 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 58%Miss