Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ryan PoehlingGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Ryan PoehlingPoints2
Flames- Morgan FrostGoals1
- Matt CoronatoAssists2
- Matt CoronatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:03Nikita Nesterenko Goal (2) Poke, assists: Alex Killorn (1), Mikael Granlund (5)4–2
- P35:35Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (1)3–2
- P217:54Aydar Suniev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (2)2–2
- P119:15Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Noah Warren (3)2–1
- P115:03Morgan Frost Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (1), Simon Nemec (1)1–1
- P110:02Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (7), Mikael Granlund (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:02Jackson LaCombe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (7), Mikael Granlund (4)ANA 1 – 0 CGY · ANA 52% → 68% +15ANA 52% → 68%+15 pts
- P115:03Morgan Frost Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (1), Simon Nemec (1)ANA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 32% → 48% +16CGY 32% → 48%+16 pts
- P119:15Frank Vatrano Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Noah Warren (3)ANA 2 – 1 CGY · ANA 52% → 69% +17ANA 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P217:54Aydar Suniev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (2)ANA 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 26% → 48% +22CGY 26% → 48%+22 pts
- P35:35Ryan Poehling Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (1)ANA 3 – 2 CGY · ANA 51% → 78% +27ANA 51% → 78%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 53%
- ML ANA -122 / CGY +102
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 45.6%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ANA -111
- CGY +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.3 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −5 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +31 Elo | CGY 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 1.531st of 32 |
| 13th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 5.832nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −4.332nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.6% | Shot share | 49.1%17th of 32 |
| 20th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 80.7%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 0–229th of 32 |
| 8th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 148227th of 32 |
| 21st of 321484 | Elo rating | 144630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  ANA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 43–51 | 45–37 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–29 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 36–29 |
| Overs–unders | 54–40 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 5–6 CGY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.