Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Martin PospisilAssists1
- Jake MiddletonPoints1
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals3
- Ivan BarbashevAssists3
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:40Matt Coronato Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matvei Gridin (2), Morgan Frost (1)2–6
- P316:13Mark Stone Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (11), Mitch Marner (7)1–6
- P312:10Mark Stone Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Noah Hanifin (2), Ivan Barbashev (7)1–5
- P31:06Mark Stone Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (10), Ivan Barbashev (6)1–4
- P211:03Braeden Bowman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (5), William Karlsson (2)1–3
- P210:15Jacob Middleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (4), Martin Pospisil (1)1–2
- P19:34Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P10:25Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:25Brett Howden Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (6)CGY 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 71% → 82% +11VGK 71% → 82%+11 pts
- P19:34Jack Eichel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 82% → 90% +9VGK 82% → 90%+9 pts
- P210:15Jacob Middleton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (4), Martin Pospisil (1)CGY 1 – 2 VGK · CGY 8% → 18% +11CGY 8% → 18%+11 pts
- P211:03Braeden Bowman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (5), William Karlsson (2)CGY 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 82% → 92% +11VGK 82% → 92%+11 pts
- P31:06Mark Stone Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (10), Ivan Barbashev (6)CGY 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 95% → 99% +4VGK 95% → 99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 71%
- ML CGY +230 / VGK -285
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 68.2%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- VGK -244
- CGY +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.6 – 3.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +1 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +133 Elo | VGK 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 70.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.0 | Goals scored | 3.86th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.8 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−2.8 | Margin | +1.35th of 32 |
| 14th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 55.2%5th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3283.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 28th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 146831st of 32 |
| 30th of 321447 | Elo rating | 15404th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–5 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 5–7 VGK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.