Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Aydar SunievGoals1
- Simon NemecAssists2
- Aydar SunievPoints2
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Leo CarlssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:38Yegor Sharangovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (1), Simon Nemec (3)4–2
- P315:38Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (1), Yan Kuznetsov (1)3–2
- P28:02Aydar Suniev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (2), Simon Nemec (2)2–2
- P114:05Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (6), Judd Caulfield (2)1–2
- P112:09Beckett Sennecke Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P18:32Adam Klapka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Maksim Tsyplakov (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:32Adam Klapka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Maksim Tsyplakov (1)CGY 1 – 0 ANA · CGY 40% → 55% +16CGY 40% → 55%+16 pts
- P112:09Beckett Sennecke Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 44% → 60% +16ANA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P114:05Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (6), Judd Caulfield (2)CGY 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 60% → 75% +15ANA 60% → 75%+15 pts
- P28:02Aydar Suniev Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (2), Simon Nemec (2)CGY 2 – 2 ANA · CGY 24% → 42% +18CGY 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P315:38Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Aydar Suniev (1), Yan Kuznetsov (1)CGY 3 – 2 ANA · CGY 47% → 90% +43CGY 47% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 61%
- ML CGY +145 / ANA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- ANA: Elo 62.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ANA -156
- CGY +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +3 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +90 Elo | ANA 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 62.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 321.6 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325.4 | Goals allowed | 2.68th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−3.8 | Margin | +1.09th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3281.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 25th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 26th of 321486 | Opponent Elo | 150119th of 32 |
| 30th of 321442 | Elo rating | 148920th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 0–5 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 0–5 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 6–6 ANA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.