Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Jesperi KotkaniemiGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Adam LowryAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:43Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (5)3–2
- P216:50Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Eric Robinson (3)2–2
- P210:59Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (3)1–2
- P28:19Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Bradly Nadeau (1)1–1
- P24:23Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:23Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneCAR 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 39% → 57% +19WPG 39% → 57%+19 pts
- P28:19Mark Jankowski Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (2), Bradly Nadeau (1)CAR 1 – 1 WPG · CAR 41% → 61% +20CAR 41% → 61%+20 pts
- P210:59Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (3)CAR 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 40% → 61% +21WPG 40% → 61%+21 pts
- P216:50Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Eric Robinson (3)CAR 2 – 2 WPG · CAR 36% → 59% +23CAR 36% → 59%+23 pts
- P36:43Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (5)CAR 3 – 2 WPG · CAR 57% → 83% +26CAR 57% → 83%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -205 / WPG +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 58.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CAR -181
- WPG +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.7 – 2.8 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WPG: Clay Stevenson: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +60 Elo | CAR 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 1st of 3260.0% | Shot share | 49.1%19th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%12th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 32 |
| 29th of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 1st of 321590 | Elo rating | 149219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | — | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–3 WPG in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.