Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Neal PionkGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists2
- Neal PionkPoints3
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:37Artyom Levshunov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (2), Patrick Kane (4)3–4
- P35:39Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (5), Isak Rosén (1)3–3
- P24:44Kyle Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Neal Pionk (4)2–3
- P117:11Ryan Donato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (1), Wyatt Kaiser (3)1–3
- P116:57Neal Pionk Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Barron (2), Brad Lambert (1)1–2
- P115:10Frank Nazar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P18:11Connor Bedard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Tyler Bertuzzi (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:11Connor Bedard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (3), Tyler Bertuzzi (3)WPG 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 47% → 62% +15CHI 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P117:11Ryan Donato Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (1), Wyatt Kaiser (3)WPG 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 64% → 79% +14CHI 64% → 79%+14 pts
- P24:44Kyle Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Neal Pionk (4)WPG 2 – 3 CHI · WPG 19% → 34% +15WPG 19% → 34%+15 pts
- P35:39Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (5), Isak Rosén (1)WPG 3 – 3 CHI · WPG 24% → 52% +28WPG 24% → 52%+28 pts
- OT1:37Artyom Levshunov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (2), Patrick Kane (4)WPG 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 49% → 94% +44CHI 49% → 94%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 53%
- ML WPG -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.3 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +3 | WPG: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +28 Elo | WPG 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.427th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.128th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −1.729th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.0% | Shot share | 41.1%30th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 87.0%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 10th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 15242nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321495 | Elo rating | 142231st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | — |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 9–2 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.