Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Blackhawks- Teuvo TeravainenGoals2
- Anton FrondellAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:50Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Anton Frondell (5), Teuvo Teravainen (3)3–5
- P315:42Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (2), Cole Smith (1)3–4
- P39:17Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Samuel Girard (5)3–3
- P217:51Nick Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (3), Erik Karlsson (7)2–3
- P210:32Roman Kantserov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (2), Patrick Kane (2)1–3
- P117:50Roman Kantserov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (1), Bowen Byram (1)1–2
- P16:57Sidney Crosby Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (6)1–1
- P10:28Teuvo Teravainen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (4), Tyler Bertuzzi (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:50Roman Kantserov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (1), Bowen Byram (1)PIT 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 42% → 59% +17CHI 42% → 59%+17 pts
- P210:32Roman Kantserov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (2), Patrick Kane (2)PIT 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 64% → 81% +17CHI 64% → 81%+17 pts
- P217:51Nick Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (3), Erik Karlsson (7)PIT 2 – 3 CHI · PIT 15% → 32% +18PIT 15% → 32%+18 pts
- P39:17Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Samuel Girard (5)PIT 3 – 3 CHI · PIT 22% → 54% +32PIT 22% → 54%+32 pts
- P315:42Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (2), Cole Smith (1)PIT 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 47% → 90% +43CHI 47% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML PIT -162 / CHI +136
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -146
- CHI +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | PIT: Sergei Murashov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +49 Elo | PIT 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.030th of 32 |
| 14th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.330th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.8 | Margin | −2.330th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 40.9%31st of 32 |
| 8th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 86.7%25th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 15th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15273rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321505 | Elo rating | 141731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.