Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists1
- Tyler SeguinPoints1
Penguins- Connor DewarGoals1
- Blake LizotteAssists1
- Connor DewarPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Rickard Rakell Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Wyatt Johnston Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Tyler Seguin Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Sidney Crosby Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Ben Kindel Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- P319:30Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Miro Heiskanen (1)1–1
- P31:57Connor Dewar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (2)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:57Connor Dewar Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Blake Lizotte (2)DAL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 44% → 69% +26PIT 44% → 69%+26 pts
- P319:30Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Miro Heiskanen (1)DAL 1 – 1 PIT · DAL <1% → 51% +51DAL <1% → 51%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML DAL -180 / PIT +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DAL -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +30 Elo | DAL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 4.05th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.5 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.813th of 32 |
| 12th of 3252.7% | Shot share | 49.7%15th of 32 |
| 1st of 3295.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%14th of 32 |
| 8th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 150418th of 32 |
| 4th of 321537 | Elo rating | 150216th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025-26) |  DAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 35–53 | 49–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–49 | 13–23 |
| Underdog | 16–4 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–42 | 50–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–1 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.