Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:32Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20)3–4
- P313:07Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Quinn Hughes (11)3–3
- P310:30Kirill Kaprizov Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (4), Jonas Brodin (2)2–3
- P26:01Mathieu Joseph Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Formenton (3), Owen Michaels (2)1–3
- P21:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Vasily Podkolzin (5)1–2
- P119:57Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Evan Bouchard (11)1–1
- P13:32Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Matt Boldy (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:32Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (6), Matt Boldy (3)MIN 1 – 0 EDM · MIN 46% → 61% +15MIN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P119:57Leon Draisaitl Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Evan Bouchard (11)MIN 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 36% → 53% +18EDM 36% → 53%+18 pts
- P21:03Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Vasily Podkolzin (5)MIN 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 53% → 71% +17EDM 53% → 71%+17 pts
- P313:07Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Quinn Hughes (11)MIN 3 – 3 EDM · MIN 13% → 49% +35MIN 13% → 49%+35 pts
- OT3:32Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20)MIN 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 51% → >99% +48EDM 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML MIN +110 / EDM -130
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.1 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −8 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −6 | — | Key absences: Nick Foligno |
| Elo ratings | EDM +25 Elo | EDM 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.61st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +1.62nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 48.3%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–227th of 32 |
| 6th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 146532nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Elo rating | 15298th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–3 EDM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.