Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals2
- Nick SchmaltzAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:32Clayton Keller Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (5), Lawson Crouse (2)4–2
- P31:40Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Michaels (1), Mathieu Joseph (3)3–2
- P214:17Logan Cooley Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Dylan Guenther (5)3–1
- P213:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (14), Evan Bouchard (9)2–1
- P211:57Clayton Keller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (7), Nick Schmaltz (4)2–0
- P110:38Barrett Hayton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (3), John Marino (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:38Barrett Hayton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kailer Yamamoto (3), John Marino (3)UTA 1 – 0 EDM · UTA 51% → 67% +16UTA 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P211:57Clayton Keller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (7), Nick Schmaltz (4)UTA 2 – 0 EDM · UTA 71% → 86% +15UTA 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P213:54Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (14), Evan Bouchard (9)UTA 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 13% → 28% +15EDM 13% → 28%+15 pts
- P214:17Logan Cooley Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Dylan Guenther (5)UTA 3 – 1 EDM · UTA 72% → 87% +15UTA 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P31:40Shakir Mukhamadullin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Michaels (1), Mathieu Joseph (3)UTA 3 – 2 EDM · EDM 9% → 25% +16EDM 9% → 25%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 51%
- ML UTA -115 / EDM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- UTA: Elo 44.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- UTA -104
- EDM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 3.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −8 | UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +39 Elo | EDM 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.9 | Goals scored | 4.81st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+1.1 | Margin | +1.81st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3257.6% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 88.5%23rd of 32 |
| 11th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 25th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 145132nd of 32 |
| 12th of 321517 | Elo rating | 15289th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 1–5 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.