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Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, ABTV

Away

Oilers

5-0-1

4–1

at

Home

Kings

0-3-2

EDM 53%LA 47%

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crypto.com Arena · ESPN+, ABTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.

LA favored EDM favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3LA50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P317:42Vasily Podkolzin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (7)4–1
  • P217:29Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Trevor Moore (1)3–1
  • P115:48Connor McDavid Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ty Emberson (1), Jason Dickinson (1)3–0
  • P18:16Vasily Podkolzin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Evan Bouchard (8)2–0
  • P17:16Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Evan Bouchard (7)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P17:16Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Evan Bouchard (7)EDM 1 – 0 LA · EDM 53% → 68% +15
  2. P18:16Vasily Podkolzin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (12), Evan Bouchard (8)EDM 2 – 0 LA · EDM 68% → 81% +13
  3. P115:48Connor McDavid Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ty Emberson (1), Jason Dickinson (1)EDM 3 – 0 LA · EDM 82% → 91% +9
  4. P217:29Brandt Clarke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Trevor Moore (1)EDM 3 – 1 LA · LA 3% → 11% +7
  5. P317:42Vasily Podkolzin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Leon Draisaitl (7)EDM 4 – 1 LA · EDM >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 53%

Toss-upHit
EDM 53%LA 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 53%
ML EDM -125 / LA +105
Pre-line forecast
EDM 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 52%
Ratings vs. market
−1.7 pts
EDM: Elo 51.6%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
EDM -114
LA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.3 – 3.2 LA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMLAWhy
Team rating15241470Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−12−5EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.31 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +11 EloEDM 51.6%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 50.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatLA
1st of 325.0Goals scored2.527th of 32
22nd of 323.4Goals allowed4.330th of 32
3rd of 32+1.6Margin−1.830th of 32
8th of 3253.4%Shot share49.6%18th of 32
29th of 3285.3%Save percentage85.3%29th of 32
1st of 323–0Road vs home0–129th of 32
32nd of 321449Opponent Elo15176th of 32
9th of 321524Elo rating147028th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersKings
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

Last season (2025-26)EDMLA
Puck line38–5032–54
Last 105–54–6
Favorite26–4411–41
Underdog12–621–13
Overs–unders53–3540–46
Overs–unders, last 106–44–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 13–9 LA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.