Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Mammoth- John MarinoGoals1
- Kevin StenlundAssists1
- John MarinoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:17Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none6–2
- P36:00Mikhail Sergachev Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none5–2
- P34:25John Marino Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (3), Daniil But (1)5–1
- P213:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17), Mattias Ekholm (2)5–0
- P210:57Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Evan Bouchard (10)4–0
- P113:53Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none3–0
- P113:21Zach Hyman Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (15), Vasily Podkolzin (4)2–0
- P10:40Connor McDavid Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (8), Vasily Podkolzin (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:40Connor McDavid Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (8), Vasily Podkolzin (3)EDM 1 – 0 UTA · EDM 42% → 56% +15EDM 42% → 56%+15 pts
- P113:21Zach Hyman Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Connor McDavid (15), Vasily Podkolzin (4)EDM 2 – 0 UTA · EDM 59% → 74% +15EDM 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P113:53Mathieu Joseph Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 0 UTA · EDM 74% → 86% +11EDM 74% → 86%+11 pts
- P210:57Kasperi Kapanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Evan Bouchard (10)EDM 4 – 0 UTA · EDM 92% → 97% +5EDM 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P213:48Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17), Mattias Ekholm (2)EDM 5 – 0 UTA · EDM 98% → >99% +1EDM 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 58%
- ML EDM +130 / UTA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- UTA: Elo 55.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -140
- EDM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.5 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +36 Elo | UTA 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.4 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.69th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +1.36th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.0% | Shot share | 56.9%4th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%17th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 32nd of 321458 | Opponent Elo | 149320th of 32 |
| 10th of 321524 | Elo rating | 152113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 5–2 UTA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.