Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
EDM went from 60% to 58% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Vinni Lettieri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gavin McKenna (5)7–2
- P317:56William Nylander Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (2)6–2
- P316:35Leon Draisaitl Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (25), Evan Bouchard (14)5–2
- P313:39Zack MacEwen Goal (1) Batted, assists: Brandon Duhaime (3)5–1
- P35:59William Nylander Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (6), Kirill Marchenko (8)4–1
- P219:04Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (24), Evan Bouchard (13)3–1
- P26:23Troy Stecher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (7), Morgan Rielly (9)3–0
- P25:29Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (7), Jack Roslovic (7)2–0
- P114:16Jack Roslovic Goal (5), assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:16Jack Roslovic Goal (5), assists: noneTOR 1 – 0 EDM · TOR 43% → 59% +17TOR 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P25:29Auston Matthews Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Easton Cowan (7), Jack Roslovic (7)TOR 2 – 0 EDM · TOR 63% → 79% +16TOR 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P26:23Troy Stecher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (7), Morgan Rielly (9)TOR 3 – 0 EDM · TOR 79% → 90% +11TOR 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P219:04Leon Draisaitl Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (24), Evan Bouchard (13)TOR 3 – 1 EDM · EDM 4% → 13% +9EDM 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P35:59William Nylander Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (6), Kirill Marchenko (8)TOR 4 – 1 EDM · TOR 92% → 98% +6TOR 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML TOR +130 / EDM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Mattias Ekholm, John Tavares |
| Elo ratings | EDM +86 Elo | EDM 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 4.71st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +1.52nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.8% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 88.3%21st of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–216th of 32 |
| 11th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 148328th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321479 | Elo rating | 15346th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–6 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.