Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints5
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P318:32Connor McDavid Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (11)5–5
- P317:20Juuso Valimaki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)5–4
- P32:51Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1), Connor McDavid (23)4–4
- P30:26Connor McDavid Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Jake Walman (1)4–3
- P217:53Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (6)4–2
- P212:59Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (3)3–2
- P24:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Leon Draisaitl (9)2–2
- P20:30Sebastian Aho Goal (7) Backhand, assists: William Carrier (7)2–1
- P110:30Jackson Blake Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (6), Sebastian Aho (9)1–1
- P18:07Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (12), Connor McDavid (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Leon Draisaitl (9)CAR 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 31% → 49% +18EDM 31% → 49%+18 pts
- P212:59Seth Jarvis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (3)CAR 3 – 2 EDM · CAR 51% → 72% +21CAR 51% → 72%+21 pts
- P32:51Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1), Connor McDavid (23)CAR 4 – 4 EDM · EDM 24% → 49% +25EDM 24% → 49%+25 pts
- P317:20Juuso Valimaki Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (7)CAR 5 – 4 EDM · CAR 50% → 96% +46CAR 50% → 96%+46 pts
- P318:32Connor McDavid Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (11)CAR 5 – 5 EDM · EDM <1% → 50% +49EDM <1% → 50%+49 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 52%
- ML CAR -118 / EDM -102
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 54.8%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -107
- EDM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.3 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −6 | CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · EDM: Devon Levi: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +34 Elo | CAR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 4.61st of 32 |
| 5th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.4 | Margin | +1.62nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3260.4% | Shot share | 48.7%21st of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–1 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321473 | Opponent Elo | 147331st of 32 |
| 1st of 321592 | Elo rating | 15327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | — | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 3–3 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.