Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Nikolaj EhlersGoals2
- Jackson BlakeAssists3
- Nikolaj EhlersPoints3
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:57Logan Stankoven Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (5), Jackson Blake (10)6–3
- P310:22Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P34:07Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bradly Nadeau (2), K'Andre Miller (3)4–3
- P213:07Arshdeep Bains Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (2), Zeev Buium (2)3–3
- P22:26Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3)3–2
- P119:58Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (4), Brock Boeser (6)2–2
- P112:09Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Logan Stankoven (3)2–1
- P110:10Linus Karlsson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (8), Jake DeBrusk (3)1–1
- P14:44Logan Stankoven Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (8), Juuso Valimaki (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:09Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (9), Logan Stankoven (3)CAR 2 – 1 VAN · CAR 69% → 82% +13CAR 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P119:58Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (4), Brock Boeser (6)CAR 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 18% → 32% +14VAN 18% → 32%+14 pts
- P22:26Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (3)CAR 3 – 2 VAN · CAR 67% → 82% +15CAR 67% → 82%+15 pts
- P213:07Arshdeep Bains Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Sasson (2), Zeev Buium (2)CAR 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 18% → 35% +17VAN 18% → 35%+17 pts
- P34:07Nicolas Deslauriers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Bradly Nadeau (2), K'Andre Miller (3)CAR 4 – 3 VAN · CAR 61% → 84% +23CAR 61% → 84%+23 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Hurricanes 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 71%
- ML CAR -290 / VAN +235
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CAR: Elo 68.5%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -249
- VAN +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.9 – 2.6 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +13 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −1 | Key absences: Marco Rossi |
| Elo ratings | CAR +135 Elo | CAR 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 68.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 4.531st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −1.529th of 32 |
| 1st of 3259.1% | Shot share | 39.2%32nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.5% | Save percentage | 86.2%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 325–1 | Road vs home | 1–228th of 32 |
| 30th of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 32 |
| 1st of 321589 | Elo rating | 141332nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | — | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 5–2 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.