Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Liam OhgrenGoals1
- Linus KarlssonAssists1
- Liam OhgrenPoints1
Panthers- Brady TkachukGoals3
- Seth JonesAssists2
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:23Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (8), Sam Reinhart (2)2–3
- P319:47Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Seth Jones (7)2–2
- P311:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (3), Matthew Tkachuk (8)2–1
- P117:06Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (1), Brock Boeser (4)2–0
- P17:23Liam Ohgren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:23Liam Ohgren Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Linus Karlsson (5)VAN 1 – 0 FLA · VAN 29% → 44% +15VAN 29% → 44%+15 pts
- P117:06Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (1), Brock Boeser (4)VAN 2 – 0 FLA · VAN 48% → 65% +17VAN 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P311:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (3), Matthew Tkachuk (8)VAN 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 5% → 23% +19FLA 5% → 23%+19 pts
- P319:47Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (2), Seth Jones (7)VAN 2 – 2 FLA · FLA <1% → 51% +51FLA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:23Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (8), Sam Reinhart (2)VAN 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 55% → 97% +42FLA 55% → 97%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 72%
- ML VAN +240 / FLA -298
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 65.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- FLA -255
- VAN +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.6 – 3.9 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +1 | VAN: Leevi Merilainen: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · FLA: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +112 Elo | FLA 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 68.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.722nd of 32 |
| 31st of 324.8 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.5 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 30th of 3241.4% | Shot share | 51.7%11th of 32 |
| 30th of 3285.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%18th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 0–129th of 32 |
| 9th of 321513 | Opponent Elo | 150614th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321417 | Elo rating | 150615th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 5–1 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.