Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Linus KarlssonGoals1
- Filip ChytilAssists1
- Elias PetterssonPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- Brayden PointAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:57Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P32:04Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1), Brayden Point (5)2–3
- P211:23Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (4)2–2
- P26:30Nikita Kucherov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (5), Jake Guentzel (5)2–1
- P24:35Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (4), Brock Boeser (5)2–0
- P115:32Linus Karlsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (3), Filip Chytil (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:32Linus Karlsson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (3), Filip Chytil (2)VAN 1 – 0 TB · VAN 27% → 42% +15VAN 27% → 42%+15 pts
- P24:35Elias Pettersson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Lekkerimaki (4), Brock Boeser (5)VAN 2 – 0 TB · VAN 47% → 65% +19VAN 47% → 65%+19 pts
- P26:30Nikita Kucherov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (5), Jake Guentzel (5)VAN 2 – 1 TB · TB 33% → 52% +19TB 33% → 52%+19 pts
- P211:23Nikita Kucherov Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (4)VAN 2 – 2 TB · TB 49% → 69% +20TB 49% → 69%+20 pts
- P32:04Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1), Brayden Point (5)VAN 2 – 3 TB · TB 65% → 86% +20TB 65% → 86%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- TB 77%
- ML VAN +310 / TB -395
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- TB: Elo 71.3%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -327
- VAN +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −23 | VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TB: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.58 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +158 Elo | TB 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 73.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.6 | Goals allowed | 2.710th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−1.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 32 |
| 31st of 3240.3% | Shot share | 55.6%4th of 32 |
| 28th of 3286.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%12th of 32 |
| 26th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 11th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321415 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 2–4 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.