Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals2
- Pontus HolmbergAssists1
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:07Victor Hedman Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (3)3–4
- P315:41Matty Beniers Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (5)3–3
- P39:58Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P32:54Jared McCann Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Chandler Stephenson (7)2–2
- P23:38Brandon Hagel Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2), Dominic James (1)1–2
- P116:53Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (3), Jake Guentzel (4)1–1
- P15:43Ryan Winterton Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Freddy Gaudreau (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:53Brandon Hagel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (3), Jake Guentzel (4)SEA 1 – 1 TB · TB 51% → 68% +17TB 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P32:54Jared McCann Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (4), Chandler Stephenson (7)SEA 2 – 2 TB · SEA 17% → 39% +22SEA 17% → 39%+22 pts
- P39:58Ilya Mikheyev Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 2 – 3 TB · TB 59% → 87% +28TB 59% → 87%+28 pts
- P315:41Matty Beniers Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Vince Dunn (5)SEA 3 – 3 TB · SEA 7% → 44% +38SEA 7% → 44%+38 pts
- OT2:07Victor Hedman Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (3)SEA 3 – 4 TB · TB 55% → 96% +42TB 55% → 96%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 71%
- ML SEA +225 / TB -278
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TB: Elo 65.7%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -239
- SEA +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +113 Elo | TB 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.1 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 9th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.217th of 32 |
| 26th of 3246.8% | Shot share | 55.5%4th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 5th of 324–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 24th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 150317th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–4 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.