New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals1
- Adam FoxAssists4
- Adam FoxPoints4
Maple Leafs- Brandon DuhaimeGoals1
- Brandon DuhaimeAssists2
- Brandon DuhaimePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:32Troy Stecher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (8), Brandon Duhaime (2)4–5
- P314:25Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (14), Mika Zibanejad (8)4–4
- P219:09Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Poke, assists: Gavin McKenna (4), William Nylander (10)3–4
- P28:00Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack MacEwen (2), Teddy Blueger (1)3–3
- P26:30Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (13), Pavel Dorofeyev (4)3–2
- P22:37Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Dowling (1), Adam Fox (12)2–2
- P110:01Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Duhaime (1), Zack MacEwen (1)1–2
- P15:39Mika Zibanejad Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (5), Adam Fox (11)1–1
- P11:36Easton Cowan Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (1), Jack Roslovic (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:30Tye Kartye Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (13), Pavel Dorofeyev (4)NYR 3 – 2 TOR · NYR 50% → 69% +19NYR 50% → 69%+19 pts
- P28:00Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack MacEwen (2), Teddy Blueger (1)NYR 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 31% → 50% +19TOR 31% → 50%+19 pts
- P219:09Kirill Marchenko Goal (6) Poke, assists: Gavin McKenna (4), William Nylander (10)NYR 3 – 4 TOR · TOR 50% → 73% +23TOR 50% → 73%+23 pts
- P314:25Alexis Lafrenière Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (14), Mika Zibanejad (8)NYR 4 – 4 TOR · NYR 12% → 50% +38NYR 12% → 50%+38 pts
- P319:32Troy Stecher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (8), Brandon Duhaime (2)NYR 4 – 5 TOR · TOR 50% → >99% +50TOR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 50%
- ML NYR -112 / TOR -108
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- NYR: Elo 50.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- NYR -102
- TOR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.3 – 3.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | 0 | NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: John Tavares |
| Elo ratings | NYR +2 Elo | NYR 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 4th of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 2nd of 167–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 16 |
| 26th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 32 |
| 17th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 150810th of 32 |
| 16th of 321497 | Elo rating | 147724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–3 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 3–6 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.