Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- A.J. GreerGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Nick JensenPoints1
Rangers- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Anthony-John (AJ) Greer Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (2)2–5
- P318:51Nick Jensen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (2), Frank Vatrano (1)1–5
- P33:26Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (1), Braden Schneider (2)0–5
- P213:14Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none0–4
- P210:17Gabe Perreault Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (7), Alexis Lafrenière (6)0–3
- P24:38J.T. Miller Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (10), Alexis Lafrenière (5)0–2
- P11:18Sean Durzi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3), Tye Kartye (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:18Sean Durzi Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (3), Tye Kartye (5)ANA 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 58% → 72% +14NYR 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P24:38J.T. Miller Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Fox (10), Alexis Lafrenière (5)ANA 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 74% → 87% +13NYR 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P210:17Gabe Perreault Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (7), Alexis Lafrenière (6)ANA 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 88% → 96% +7NYR 88% → 96%+7 pts
- P213:14Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneANA 0 – 4 NYR · NYR 96% → 99% +3NYR 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P33:26Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Taylor Raddysh (1), Braden Schneider (2)ANA 0 – 5 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 58%
- ML ANA +130 / NYR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- NYR: Elo 60.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYR -140
- ANA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +9 | ANA: Ville Husso: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | NYR +72 Elo | NYR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 60.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.610th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3247.9% | Shot share | 48.3%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 92.0%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321480 | Elo rating | 149418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–3 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.