Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Elias LindholmGoals1
- James HagensAssists2
- Elias LindholmPoints2
Ducks- Tim WasheGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists1
- Tim WashePoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:20Matthew Poitras Goal (3) Backhand, assists: James Hagens (4)4–2
- P38:18Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (3), Morgan Geekie (6)3–2
- P33:26David Pastrnak Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (4), Pavel Zacha (2)2–2
- P23:15Frederic Brunet Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James Hagens (3), David Pastrnak (7)1–2
- P119:43Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (1), Cutter Gauthier (3)0–2
- P119:22Tim Washe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Tristan Luneau (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:22Tim Washe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Tristan Luneau (2)BOS 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 50% → 67% +17ANA 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P119:43Beckett Sennecke Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Nikita Nesterenko (1), Cutter Gauthier (3)BOS 0 – 2 ANA · ANA 67% → 81% +14ANA 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P23:15Frederic Brunet Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: James Hagens (3), David Pastrnak (7)BOS 1 – 2 ANA · BOS 18% → 32% +15BOS 18% → 32%+15 pts
- P33:26David Pastrnak Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Elias Lindholm (4), Pavel Zacha (2)BOS 2 – 2 ANA · BOS 25% → 50% +26BOS 25% → 50%+26 pts
- P38:18Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Zacha (3), Morgan Geekie (6)BOS 3 – 2 ANA · BOS 50% → 80% +30BOS 50% → 80%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML BOS -112 / ANA -108
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- ANA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.3 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +2 | BOS: Michael DiPietro: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +14 Elo | ANA 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.812th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.1% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149226th of 32 |
| 13th of 321515 | Elo rating | 148421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 1–5 ANA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.