Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
CGY went from 46% to 47% over 2 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 24 at 4:25 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Andrew CoppPoints1
Flames- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists2
- Joel FarabeePoints3
Scoring summary
- P218:30Matvei Gridin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (7), Matt Coronato (6)1–4
- P217:04Ryan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (4), Matvei Gridin (3)1–3
- P28:38Zayne Parekh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (5), Joel Farabee (6)1–2
- P22:22Andrew Copp Goal (2) Backhand, assists: J.T. Compher (2)1–1
- P117:50Joel Farabee Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (2), Kevin Bahl (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:50Joel Farabee Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (2), Kevin Bahl (1)DET 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 47% → 64% +17CGY 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P22:22Andrew Copp Goal (2) Backhand, assists: J.T. Compher (2)DET 1 – 1 CGY · DET 35% → 53% +18DET 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P28:38Zayne Parekh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (5), Joel Farabee (6)DET 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 48% → 67% +20CGY 48% → 67%+20 pts
- P217:04Ryan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (4), Matvei Gridin (3)DET 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 71% → 87% +17CGY 71% → 87%+17 pts
- P218:30Matvei Gridin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (7), Matt Coronato (6)DET 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 88% → 96% +8CGY 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Red Wings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML DET -125 / CGY +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- DET: Elo 49.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- CGY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 2.7 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Mikael Backlund |
| Elo ratings | CGY +3 Elo | CGY 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −2.132nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 48.7%19th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 86.5%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–326th of 32 |
| 29th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321480 | Elo rating | 145030th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–0 CGY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.