Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Kraken- Brandon MontourGoals1
- Berkly CattonAssists1
- Brandon MontourPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bobby McMann Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Viktor Arvidsson Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Freddy Gaudreau Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P319:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (4), Lucas Raymond (5)3–3
- P37:24Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (5), Dylan Larkin (3)2–3
- P36:25Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Emmitt Finnie (3), Anton Johansson (2)1–3
- P216:01Brandon Montour Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (5)0–3
- P23:22Ryker Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P16:45Mackie Samoskevich Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:45Mackie Samoskevich Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (8)DET 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 51% → 66% +15SEA 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P23:22Ryker Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDET 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 69% → 83% +14SEA 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P216:01Brandon Montour Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (5)DET 0 – 3 SEA · SEA 88% → 96% +8SEA 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P37:24Lucas Raymond Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (5), Dylan Larkin (3)DET 2 – 3 SEA · DET 5% → 21% +16DET 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P319:43Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (4), Lucas Raymond (5)DET 3 – 3 SEA · DET <1% → 50% +50DET <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Kraken 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML DET -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −3 | DET: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +31 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.94th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 32 |
| 9th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 45.4%29th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%17th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
| 26th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321478 | Elo rating | 147127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–2 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.