Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists2
- Kaapo KakkoPoints2
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals3
- Matthew TkachukAssists3
- Carter VerhaeghePoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:14Sam Bennett Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Uvis Balinskis (1), Dmitry Kulikov (2)3–8
- P33:49Ryker Evans Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Berkly Catton (4), Kaapo Kakko (6)3–7
- P32:25Sam Reinhart Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (11), Seth Jones (9)2–7
- P219:05Freddy Gaudreau Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (2)2–6
- P213:13Sam Bennett Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (4), Gustav Forsling (1)1–6
- P26:42Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–5
- P26:02Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (1), Lars Eller (5)1–4
- P119:07Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (3), Matthew Tkachuk (10)1–3
- P117:56Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3)1–2
- P14:54Shane Wright Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Berkly Catton (3), Kaapo Kakko (5)1–1
- P11:05Sam Bennett Goal (1) Batted, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:05Sam Bennett Goal (1) Batted, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (9)SEA 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 62% → 75% +13FLA 62% → 75%+13 pts
- P14:54Shane Wright Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Berkly Catton (3), Kaapo Kakko (5)SEA 1 – 1 FLA · SEA 25% → 38% +13SEA 25% → 38%+13 pts
- P117:56Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (3)SEA 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 60% → 76% +15FLA 60% → 76%+15 pts
- P119:07Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (3), Matthew Tkachuk (10)SEA 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 76% → 87% +12FLA 76% → 87%+12 pts
- P26:02Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Niko Mikkola (1), Lars Eller (5)SEA 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 89% → 95% +7FLA 89% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 62%
- ML SEA +154 / FLA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- FLA: Elo 60.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -165
- SEA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · FLA: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +72 Elo | FLA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.1 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 28th of 3246.3% | Shot share | 53.9%8th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%20th of 32 |
| 7th of 324–2 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 32 |
| 18th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 150814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.