Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals2
- Michael Brandsegg-NygardAssists2
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Canucks- Jonathan LekkerimakiGoals1
- Jonathan LekkerimakiAssists1
- Jonathan LekkerimakiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:37Jonathan Lekkerimaki Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (2), Zeev Buium (3)5–2
- P34:00Emmitt Finnie Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (4)5–1
- P214:58Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Anton Johansson (3), J.T. Compher (1)4–1
- P18:56Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3), Alex DeBrincat (6)3–1
- P17:02Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (7), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (5)2–1
- P16:04William Wallinder Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (6)2–0
- P14:18Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Albert Johansson (1), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:18Lucas Raymond Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Albert Johansson (1), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (5)DET 1 – 0 VAN · DET 60% → 74% +14DET 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P16:04William Wallinder Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (6), Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (6)DET 2 – 0 VAN · DET 74% → 85% +11DET 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P17:02Elias Pettersson Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (7), Jonathan Lekkerimaki (5)DET 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 15% → 26% +11VAN 15% → 26%+11 pts
- P18:56Lucas Raymond Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3), Alex DeBrincat (6)DET 3 – 1 VAN · DET 74% → 85% +11DET 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P214:58Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Anton Johansson (3), J.T. Compher (1)DET 4 – 1 VAN · DET 90% → 97% +7DET 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Red Wings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML DET -170 / VAN +142
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 56.6%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -152
- VAN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.0 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −13 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −1 | Key absences: Marco Rossi |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 4.632nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.6 | Margin | −1.630th of 32 |
| 11th of 3252.4% | Shot share | 38.1%32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 86.5%31st of 32 |
| 30th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–330th of 32 |
| 27th of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 15242nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321476 | Elo rating | 141132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–2 VAN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.