Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
EDM went from 62% to 62% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Viktor ArvidssonGoals1
- Lucas RaymondAssists2
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints2
Oilers- Colton DachGoals1
- Colton DachAssists1
- Colton DachPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Wrist Shot1–0
- P318:43Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Moritz Seider (6)3–3
- P316:32Colton Dach Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)2–3
- P34:48Emmitt Finnie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5)2–2
- P34:18Isaac Howard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2), Colton Dach (1)1–2
- P28:35Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (7), Alex DeBrincat (7)1–1
- P16:10Vasily Podkolzin Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12), Connor McDavid (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:35Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (7), Alex DeBrincat (7)DET 1 – 1 EDM · DET 24% → 42% +18DET 24% → 42%+18 pts
- P34:18Isaac Howard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2), Colton Dach (1)DET 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 56% → 81% +25EDM 56% → 81%+25 pts
- P34:48Emmitt Finnie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (5)DET 2 – 2 EDM · DET 19% → 44% +25DET 19% → 44%+25 pts
- P316:32Colton Dach Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Shea (3), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2)DET 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 53% → 94% +42EDM 53% → 94%+42 pts
- P318:43Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Moritz Seider (6)DET 3 – 3 EDM · DET <1% → 48% +48DET <1% → 48%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 62%
- ML DET +150 / EDM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- EDM -161
- DET +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −3 | DET: Michal Postava (no track record yet) · EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Mattias Ekholm |
| Elo ratings | EDM +79 Elo | EDM 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 4.51st of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 32 |
| 9th of 3253.9% | Shot share | 48.5%21st of 32 |
| 18th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 87.5%29th of 32 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321478 | Opponent Elo | 148429th of 32 |
| 25th of 321475 | Elo rating | 15278th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–6 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–4 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.