Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYR went from 58% to 53% over 3 updates; the betting line was first on file Saturday, October 31 at 11:25 AM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Colton DachGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints3
Rangers- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Scott MorrowAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:20Colton Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Ryan Shea (4)4–1
- P213:22Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (1), Mika Zibanejad (9)3–1
- P29:49Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Connor McDavid (30)3–0
- P16:19Colton Dach Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (18)2–0
- P10:50Connor McDavid Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:50Connor McDavid Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (17)EDM 1 – 0 NYR · EDM 47% → 61% +15EDM 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P16:19Colton Dach Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (18)EDM 2 – 0 NYR · EDM 62% → 76% +14EDM 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P29:49Evan Bouchard Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15), Connor McDavid (30)EDM 3 – 0 NYR · EDM 83% → 93% +10EDM 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P213:22Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Morrow (1), Mika Zibanejad (9)EDM 3 – 1 NYR · NYR 6% → 15% +9NYR 6% → 15%+9 pts
- P319:20Colton Dach Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (16), Ryan Shea (4)EDM 4 – 1 NYR · EDM >99% → 100% +0EDM >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 53%
- ML EDM +105 / NYR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYR: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYR -114
- EDM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.2 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −8 | EDM: Matt Tomkins: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYR: Dylan Garand: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +13 Elo | NYR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.3 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.09th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 32 |
| 14th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%9th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 1st of 326–0 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321480 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 32 |
| 7th of 321533 | Elo rating | 148619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 9–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–2 NYR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.