Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NYI went from 48% to 49% over 6 updates; the betting line was first on file Friday, October 30 at 12:03 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints2
IslandersScoring summary
- P317:23Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (4), Mattias Ekholm (3)4–0
- P218:26Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (29), Leon Draisaitl (14)3–0
- P29:50Vasily Podkolzin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13), Evan Bouchard (16)2–0
- P28:42Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:42Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (3)EDM 1 – 0 NYI · EDM 51% → 70% +19EDM 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P29:50Vasily Podkolzin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13), Evan Bouchard (16)EDM 2 – 0 NYI · EDM 70% → 85% +15EDM 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P218:26Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (29), Leon Draisaitl (14)EDM 3 – 0 NYI · EDM 89% → 97% +8EDM 89% → 97%+8 pts
- P317:23Jason Dickinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (4), Mattias Ekholm (3)EDM 4 – 0 NYI · EDM >99% → >99% +0EDM >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Oilers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 51%
- ML EDM -115 / NYI -105
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- EDM: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -104
- NYI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.3 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | EDM: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −3 | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | EDM +5 Elo | EDM 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.3 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.3% | Shot share | 49.8%15th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 1st of 325–0 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 32 |
| 31st of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 148727th of 32 |
| 10th of 321528 | Elo rating | 148819th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–5 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–3 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.