New York Islanders at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
How the forecast moved
NSH went from 53% to 53% over 4 updates; the betting line was first on file Monday, October 26 at 3:19 PM ET. Updates come from lines, injury news and results elsewhere in the league.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bo Horvat Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Kyle Palmieri Goal Snap Shot2–0
- P34:16Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Daemon Hunt (1), Filip Forsberg (10)3–3
- P213:02Alexander Kerfoot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (2)3–2
- P29:42Filip Forsberg Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (3), Steven Stamkos (8)3–1
- P21:08Bo Horvat Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (9), Simon Holmstrom (2)3–0
- P18:07Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ondrej Palat (2)2–0
- P13:07Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5), Tony DeAngelo (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:07Anthony Duclair Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (5), Tony DeAngelo (3)NYI 1 – 0 NSH · NYI 47% → 62% +15NYI 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P18:07Brayden Schenn Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Ondrej Palat (2)NYI 2 – 0 NSH · NYI 63% → 77% +14NYI 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P21:08Bo Horvat Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Schaefer (9), Simon Holmstrom (2)NYI 3 – 0 NSH · NYI 80% → 90% +10NYI 80% → 90%+10 pts
- P213:02Alexander Kerfoot Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (2)NYI 3 – 2 NSH · NSH 15% → 31% +16NSH 15% → 31%+16 pts
- P34:16Ryan O'Reilly Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Daemon Hunt (1), Filip Forsberg (10)NYI 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 25% → 51% +26NSH 25% → 51%+26 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML NYI +102 / NSH -122
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- NSH -111
- NYI +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | −2 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | — | Key absences: Matias Maccelli |
| Elo ratings | NSH +41 Elo | NSH 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3249.4% | Shot share | 46.9%27th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 89.8%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 32 |
| 28th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321482 | Elo rating | 147824th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–4 NSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.