Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals2
- Charlie McAvoyAssists4
- David PastrnakPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:00David Pastrnak Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Frederic Brunet (3), Charlie McAvoy (5)0–6
- P36:50Mark Kastelic Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Poitras (3), Tanner Jeannot (2)0–5
- P217:21JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (10)0–4
- P29:46David Pastrnak Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (4), Pavel Zacha (5)0–3
- P116:38Elias Lindholm Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (3), Pavel Zacha (4)0–2
- P13:49Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (9), Charlie McAvoy (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:49Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (9), Charlie McAvoy (2)NSH 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 56% → 70% +14BOS 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P116:38Elias Lindholm Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (3), Pavel Zacha (4)NSH 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 71% → 84% +13BOS 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P29:46David Pastrnak Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Charlie McAvoy (4), Pavel Zacha (5)NSH 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 87% → 95% +8BOS 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P217:21JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (10)NSH 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 97% → >99% +2BOS 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P36:50Mark Kastelic Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Poitras (3), Tanner Jeannot (2)NSH 0 – 5 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML NSH +120 / BOS -142
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- NSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.1 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · BOS: Michael DiPietro: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +77 Elo | BOS 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.23rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +1.42nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.6% | Shot share | 47.1%27th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 92.5%3rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 7th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321477 | Elo rating | 152211th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.