Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- David PastrnakAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints2
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Alex LaferrierePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:42JJ Peterka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (8), Fraser Minten (4)4–1
- P318:02Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (3), Charlie McAvoy (1)3–1
- P313:36Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Poitras (2), Morgan Geekie (7)2–1
- P22:43David Pastrnak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P10:31Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (3), Brandt Clarke (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:31Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (3), Brandt Clarke (4)BOS 0 – 1 LA · LA 58% → 72% +13LA 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P22:43David Pastrnak Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 1 LA · BOS 26% → 43% +17BOS 26% → 43%+17 pts
- P313:36Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Poitras (2), Morgan Geekie (7)BOS 2 – 1 LA · BOS 47% → 85% +38BOS 47% → 85%+38 pts
- P318:02Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (3), Charlie McAvoy (1)BOS 3 – 1 LA · BOS 98% → >99% +2BOS 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P319:42JJ Peterka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (8), Fraser Minten (4)BOS 4 – 1 LA · BOS 100% → 100% +0BOS 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 58%
- ML BOS +130 / LA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- LA: Elo 51.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +7 Elo | LA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 4.230th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.5 | Margin | −2.030th of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 53.7%8th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 84.8%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–231st of 32 |
| 20th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15194th of 32 |
| 13th of 321519 | Elo rating | 146628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 6–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 LA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.