St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Dylan HollowayAssists1
- Philip BrobergPoints1
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Adam WilsbyAssists3
- Adam WilsbyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P38:14Jack Drury Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Roman Josi (8), Adam Wilsby (5)2–5
- P32:50Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (6), Filip Forsberg (7)2–4
- P27:36Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (1), Dylan Holloway (5)2–3
- P27:05Adam Edstrom Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (7), Adam Wilsby (4)1–3
- P112:22Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Steven Stamkos (5), Adam Wilsby (3)1–2
- P18:40Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:21Philip Broberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:40Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 34% → 49% +15NSH 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P112:22Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Steven Stamkos (5), Adam Wilsby (3)STL 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 49% → 65% +16NSH 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P27:05Adam Edstrom Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (7), Adam Wilsby (4)STL 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 68% → 83% +15NSH 68% → 83%+15 pts
- P27:36Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (1), Dylan Holloway (5)STL 2 – 3 NSH · STL 17% → 32% +15STL 17% → 32%+15 pts
- P32:50Ryan O'Reilly Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (6), Filip Forsberg (7)STL 2 – 4 NSH · NSH 75% → 91% +16NSH 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / NSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- STL: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- NSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 2.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −3 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +11 Elo | NSH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 45.2%29th of 32 |
| 21st of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 90.3%9th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 32 |
| 13th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 151110th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Elo rating | 147325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–6 NSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.