Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Matthew PoitrasGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- Matthew PoitrasPoints1
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals3
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (4), Jason Robertson (6)2–3
- P313:38Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Thomas Harley (4)2–2
- P27:30James Hagens Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), Nikita Zadorov (4)2–1
- P22:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (5)1–1
- P12:09Matthew Poitras Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Frederic Brunet (2), Tanner Jeannot (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:09Matthew Poitras Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Frederic Brunet (2), Tanner Jeannot (1)BOS 1 – 0 DAL · BOS 40% → 55% +15BOS 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P22:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (5)BOS 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 40% → 58% +18DAL 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P27:30James Hagens Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), Nikita Zadorov (4)BOS 2 – 1 DAL · BOS 42% → 62% +20BOS 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P313:38Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Thomas Harley (4)BOS 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 15% → 53% +38DAL 15% → 53%+38 pts
- OT3:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Miro Heiskanen (4), Jason Robertson (6)BOS 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 51% → >99% +48DAL 51% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 60%
- ML BOS +142 / DAL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 57.4%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -152
- BOS +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.5 – 3.0 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +52 Elo | DAL 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.1 | Goals allowed | 1.61st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.96th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 53.0%9th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.9% | Save percentage | 94.4%1st of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 1–226th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 32 |
| 10th of 321524 | Elo rating | 15395th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–2 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 0–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 0–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.