Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Arttu HyryGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Arttu HyryPoints2
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P39:40Roope Hintz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (2), Jason Robertson (4)4–0
- P31:27Arttu Hyry Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2)3–0
- P214:10Arttu Hyry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (2)2–0
- P24:58Jason Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6), Thomas Harley (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:58Jason Robertson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6), Thomas Harley (3)DAL 1 – 0 CHI · DAL 62% → 78% +16DAL 62% → 78%+16 pts
- P214:10Arttu Hyry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (2)DAL 2 – 0 CHI · DAL 79% → 92% +12DAL 79% → 92%+12 pts
- P31:27Arttu Hyry Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Nils Lundkvist (2)DAL 3 – 0 CHI · DAL 94% → 99% +5DAL 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P39:40Roope Hintz Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (2), Jason Robertson (4)DAL 4 – 0 CHI · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 66%
- ML DAL -218 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.6%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- DAL -192
- CHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.2 – 2.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +75 Elo | DAL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.626th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.9 | Goals allowed | 4.028th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −1.428th of 32 |
| 13th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 41.7%30th of 32 |
| 1st of 3293.8% | Save percentage | 87.6%24th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
| 8th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 15204th of 32 |
| 6th of 321535 | Elo rating | 142431st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 0–7 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–7 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–4 CHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.