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Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalESPN

Away

Avalanche

4-2-0

3–2

at

Home

Stars

2-3-1

COL 49%DAL 51%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored COL favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche
Stars

Scoring summary

  • P33:17Roope Hintz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Miro Heiskanen (3)3–2
  • P216:14Martin Necas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (2), Devon Toews (4)3–1
  • P23:05Martin Necas Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Nicolas Roy (2)2–1
  • P119:06Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Miro Heiskanen (2)1–1
  • P111:32Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (6), Josh Manson (3)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P111:32Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (6), Josh Manson (3)COL 1 – 0 DAL · COL 49% → 65% +16
  2. P119:06Tyler Seguin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (3), Miro Heiskanen (2)COL 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 34% → 51% +17
  3. P23:05Martin Necas Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (7), Nicolas Roy (2)COL 2 – 1 DAL · COL 49% → 67% +18
  4. P216:14Martin Necas Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (2), Devon Toews (4)COL 3 – 1 DAL · COL 71% → 87% +16
  5. P33:17Roope Hintz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Miro Heiskanen (3)COL 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 9% → 25% +16

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Stars 51%

Toss-upMiss
COL 49%DAL 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
DAL 51%
ML COL -105 / DAL -115
Pre-line forecast
DAL 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 52%
Ratings vs. market
+0.7 pts
DAL: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
DAL -104
COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
COL 2.7 – 2.8 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLDALWhy
Team rating15681535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−9+2COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +13 EloDAL 51.8%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 50.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 50.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastDAL 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

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Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatDAL
1st of 325.2Goals scored2.230th of 32
21st of 323.4Goals allowed1.61st of 32
1st of 32+1.8Margin+0.612th of 32
5th of 3255.9%Shot share53.0%9th of 32
23rd of 3287.4%Save percentage95.4%1st of 32
9th of 321–1Road vs home1–115th of 32
29th of 321478Opponent Elo149422nd of 32
2nd of 321568Elo rating15355th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheStars
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCOLDAL
Puck line3–22–3
Last 103–22–3
Favorite3–22–3
Underdog——
Overs–unders4–10–5
Overs–unders, last 104–10–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

COL 12–12 DAL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.