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Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

Final/SOTNT, truTV

Away

Stars

3-3-1

3–2

at

Home

Avalanche

4-2-1

DAL 41%COL 59%

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Ball Arena · TNT, truTV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored DAL favored4 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • SO0:00Roope Hintz Goal Wrist Shot2–1
  • SO0:00Nazem Kadri Goal Backhand2–1
  • SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot2–1
  • P38:21Brock Nelson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (2), Nazem Kadri (5)2–2
  • P31:20Arttu Hyry Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–1
  • P215:03Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Thomas Harley (2)1–1
  • P24:55Gabriel Landeskog Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (4), Sam Malinski (1)0–1

Turning points

The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P24:55Gabriel Landeskog Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (4), Sam Malinski (1)DAL 0 – 1 COL · COL 57% → 74% +17
  2. P215:03Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Thomas Harley (2)DAL 1 – 1 COL · DAL 24% → 44% +20
  3. P31:20Arttu Hyry Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneDAL 2 – 1 COL · DAL 45% → 70% +25
  4. P38:21Brock Nelson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (2), Nazem Kadri (5)DAL 2 – 2 COL · COL 23% → 54% +31

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 59%

LeanMiss
DAL 41%COL 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
COL 59%
ML DAL +136 / COL -162
Pre-line forecast
COL 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 61%
Ratings vs. market
+1.5 pts
COL: Elo 60.8%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
COL -146
DAL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.5 – 3.0 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALCOLWhy
Team rating15321570Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30−30COL and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+2+6DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +76 EloCOL 60.8%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 61.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 61.3%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatCOL
30th of 322.2Goals scored4.81st of 32
2nd of 321.8Goals allowed3.219th of 32
14th of 32+0.3Margin+1.72nd of 32
9th of 3252.6%Shot share54.8%6th of 32
1st of 3294.0%Save percentage88.2%23rd of 32
16th of 321–2Road vs home2–19th of 32
14th of 321505Opponent Elo148725th of 32
6th of 321532Elo rating15702nd of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsAvalanche
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonDALCOL
Puck line2–44–2
Last 102–44–2
Favorite2–43–2
Underdog—1–0
Overs–unders0–64–2
Overs–unders, last 100–64–2

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

DAL 12–13 COL in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 25.