Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists2
- Leo CarlssonPoints2
Islanders- Ondrej PalatGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Ondrej PalatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:20Alex Killorn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (9), Jackson LaCombe (6)2–3
- P118:44Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (8), Bo Horvat (5)1–3
- P117:18Frank Vatrano Goal (2) Backhand, assists: A.J. Greer (2), Leo Carlsson (8)1–2
- P116:28Victor Eklund Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (4), Emil Heineman (1)0–2
- P113:39Ondrej Palat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4), Anthony Duclair (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:39Ondrej Palat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4), Anthony Duclair (1)ANA 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 57% → 73% +15NYI 57% → 73%+15 pts
- P116:28Victor Eklund Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (4), Emil Heineman (1)ANA 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 73% → 85% +12NYI 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P117:18Frank Vatrano Goal (2) Backhand, assists: A.J. Greer (2), Leo Carlsson (8)ANA 1 – 2 NYI · ANA 15% → 27% +12ANA 15% → 27%+12 pts
- P118:44Simon Holmstrom Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Schaefer (8), Bo Horvat (5)ANA 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 73% → 85% +12NYI 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P317:20Alex Killorn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (9), Jackson LaCombe (6)ANA 2 – 3 NYI · ANA <1% → 4% +4ANA <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 58%
- ML ANA +130 / NYI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- NYI: Elo 61.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -140
- ANA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Matias Maccelli, Ryan Poehling |
| Elo ratings | NYI +79 Elo | NYI 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 61.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 18th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.34th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.3 | Margin | +0.89th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.3% | Shot share | 48.5%19th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 93.3%2nd of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 32 |
| 25th of 321476 | Elo rating | 148621st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–3 NYI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.