Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Devon ToewsGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals2
- Roman JosiAssists3
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints4
Scoring summary
- P310:24Steven Stamkos Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (6), Roman Josi (11)2–6
- P32:43Devon Toews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (3), Martin Necas (10)2–5
- P217:55Artturi Lehkonen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Martin Necas (9), Nathan MacKinnon (14)1–5
- P217:29Ryan O'Reilly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (2), Filip Forsberg (9)0–5
- P216:36Jack Drury Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ross Colton (2), Brady Skjei (3)0–4
- P26:38Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (10), Filip Forsberg (8)0–3
- P110:48Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (5), Mavrik Bourque (2)0–2
- P14:01Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (9), Steven Stamkos (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:01Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (9), Steven Stamkos (7)COL 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 34% → 48% +15NSH 34% → 48%+15 pts
- P110:48Steven Stamkos Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (5), Mavrik Bourque (2)COL 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 50% → 66% +16NSH 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P26:38Ryan O'Reilly Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Roman Josi (10), Filip Forsberg (8)COL 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 74% → 87% +13NSH 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P216:36Jack Drury Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ross Colton (2), Brady Skjei (3)COL 0 – 4 NSH · NSH 93% → 98% +5NSH 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P32:43Devon Toews Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (3), Martin Necas (10)COL 2 – 5 NSH · COL <1% → 4% +3COL <1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 67%
- ML COL -230 / NSH +190
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- COL: Elo 61.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -202
- NSH +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 2.8 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +84 Elo | COL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.3 | Goals scored | 2.526th of 32 |
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 45.3%28th of 32 |
| 10th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%11th of 32 |
| 14th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 2–327th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321569 | Elo rating | 147127th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 7–4 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–6 NSH in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.