Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Artturi LehkonenPoints2
Devils- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:55Artturi Lehkonen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (8), Brock Nelson (5)3–4
- P316:47Artturi Lehkonen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Gavin Brindley (1), Fedor Svechkov (4)2–4
- P316:05Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1)1–4
- P34:39Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (4)1–3
- P212:33Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (2)1–2
- P114:32Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (7), Nazem Kadri (7)1–1
- P16:40Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2), Jonas Siegenthaler (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:40Luke Evangelista Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (2), Jonas Siegenthaler (2)COL 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 49% → 64% +15NJ 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P114:32Gabriel Landeskog Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (7), Nazem Kadri (7)COL 1 – 1 NJ · COL 35% → 51% +16COL 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P212:33Declan Chisholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (2)COL 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 49% → 70% +21NJ 49% → 70%+21 pts
- P34:39Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Dougie Hamilton (4)COL 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 76% → 92% +16NJ 76% → 92%+16 pts
- P316:05Jesper Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1)COL 1 – 4 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 51%
- ML COL -115 / NJ -105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- COL: Elo 52.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +18 Elo | COL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.2 | Goals scored | 3.114th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 7th of 3254.0% | Shot share | 58.3%2nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 86.9%26th of 32 |
| 11th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 24th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321567 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.