Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:06Nathan MacKinnon Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (6), Martin Necas (6)2–5
- P214:57T.J. Hughes Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10), Cale Makar (5)2–4
- P24:24Gabriel Landeskog Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (4), Nazem Kadri (6)2–3
- P20:25Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (9), Martin Necas (5)2–2
- P111:01Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (8), Martin Necas (4)2–1
- P18:57Bryan Rust Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Samuel Girard (6)2–0
- P18:28Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (2), Erik Karlsson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:28Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (2), Erik Karlsson (8)PIT 1 – 0 COL · PIT 37% → 52% +15PIT 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P18:57Bryan Rust Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (3), Samuel Girard (6)PIT 2 – 0 COL · PIT 52% → 67% +15PIT 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P111:01Artturi Lehkonen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (8), Martin Necas (4)PIT 2 – 1 COL · COL 32% → 47% +15COL 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P20:25Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (9), Martin Necas (5)PIT 2 – 2 COL · COL 44% → 62% +18COL 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P24:24Gabriel Landeskog Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (4), Nazem Kadri (6)PIT 2 – 3 COL · COL 61% → 78% +16COL 61% → 78%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML PIT +170 / COL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- COL: Elo 62.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- PIT +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −8 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +90 Elo | COL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 67.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.6 | Goals scored | 4.41st of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.34th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 54.9%5th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.6%22nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 2–214th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Elo rating | 15672nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.