Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- T.J. HughesGoals1
- Fedor SvechkovAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints1
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Trevor ZegrasAssists3
- Trevor ZegrasPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:40T.J. Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (3), Sam Malinski (2)2–3
- P36:34Noel Acciari Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bonk (2), Trevor Zegras (5)1–3
- P217:52Martin Necas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3), Devon Toews (5)1–2
- P212:23Matvei Michkov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (4), Noah Cates (1)0–2
- P17:41Matvei Michkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (3), Trevor Zegras (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:41Matvei Michkov Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Denver Barkey (3), Trevor Zegras (3)COL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 33% → 48% +15PHI 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P212:23Matvei Michkov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (4), Noah Cates (1)COL 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 58% → 77% +19PHI 58% → 77%+19 pts
- P217:52Martin Necas Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3), Devon Toews (5)COL 1 – 2 PHI · COL 18% → 38% +20COL 18% → 38%+20 pts
- P36:34Noel Acciari Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bonk (2), Trevor Zegras (5)COL 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 71% → 91% +20PHI 71% → 91%+20 pts
- P314:40T.J. Hughes Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Fedor Svechkov (3), Sam Malinski (2)COL 2 – 3 PHI · COL 1% → 14% +13COL 1% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Avalanche 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 69%
- ML COL -250 / PHI +205
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- COL: Elo 59.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -218
- PHI +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 2.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −15 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −9 | Key absences: Tyson Foerster, Owen Tippett |
| Elo ratings | COL +70 Elo | COL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.5 | Goals scored | 1.432nd of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −2.030th of 32 |
| 6th of 3254.2% | Shot share | 39.2%32nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–431st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 15232nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321570 | Elo rating | 147425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–3 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 2–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.