Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals1
- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Drake BathersonPoints1
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals1
- Matvei MichkovAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:46Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (2), Sean Couturier (3)1–3
- P218:33Matvei Michkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Porter Martone (1)1–2
- P29:03Porter Martone Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Michkov (1)1–1
- P25:55Drake Batherson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (5), Tim Stützle (7)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:55Drake Batherson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (5), Tim Stützle (7)OTT 1 – 0 PHI · OTT 58% → 75% +17OTT 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P29:03Porter Martone Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Matvei Michkov (1)OTT 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 25% → 43% +18PHI 25% → 43%+18 pts
- P218:33Matvei Michkov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (1), Porter Martone (1)OTT 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 44% → 68% +24PHI 44% → 68%+24 pts
- P319:46Trevor Zegras Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Dvorak (2), Sean Couturier (3)OTT 1 – 3 PHI · PHI >99% → 100% +0PHI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 60%
- ML OTT -166 / PHI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- OTT: Elo 54.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- OTT -150
- PHI +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +6 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +29 Elo | OTT 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 1.232nd of 32 |
| 7th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.725th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −2.431st of 32 |
| 27th of 3246.7% | Shot share | 37.8%32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%11th of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 0–430th of 32 |
| 28th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 15242nd of 32 |
| 8th of 321529 | Elo rating | 147027th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 8–2 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.