New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Arseny GritsyukGoals1
- Arseny GritsyukAssists1
- Arseny GritsyukPoints2
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals1
- Vincent DesharnaisAssists2
- Vincent DesharnaisPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:41Timo Meier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Arseny Gritsyuk (2), Jesper Boqvist (1)2–4
- P211:14Boone Jenner Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Desharnais (3), Martin Fehervary (1)1–4
- P24:36Dylan Strome Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Jordan Kyrou (3)1–3
- P21:16Ilya Protas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3), Vincent Desharnais (2)1–2
- P116:42Ryan Leonard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (3), Logan Thompson (1)1–1
- P110:04Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (4), Stefan Noesen (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:04Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Dawson Mercer (4), Stefan Noesen (2)NJ 1 – 0 WSH · NJ 48% → 64% +16NJ 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P116:42Ryan Leonard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (3), Logan Thompson (1)NJ 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 35% → 51% +17WSH 35% → 51%+17 pts
- P21:16Ilya Protas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3), Vincent Desharnais (2)NJ 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 51% → 69% +17WSH 51% → 69%+17 pts
- P24:36Dylan Strome Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Jordan Kyrou (3)NJ 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 69% → 84% +14WSH 69% → 84%+14 pts
- P211:14Boone Jenner Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Desharnais (3), Martin Fehervary (1)NJ 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 86% → 95% +9WSH 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML NJ -102 / WSH -118
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 60.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- NJ +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +75 Elo | WSH 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3258.7% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 32 |
| 26th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 90.2%10th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 32 |
| 28th of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 15311st of 32 |
| 20th of 321490 | Elo rating | 15259th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 5–7 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.