Canadiens 4, Capitals 5: result and forecast, Oct 14

NHL games

Updated 1:24 AM ET

FinalESPN+, MNMT

Away · Montreal

Canadiens

3-3-1

4–5

Home · Washington

Capitals

4-3-0

MTL 50%WSH 50%

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Capital One Arena · ESPN+, MNMT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored MTL favored9 scoring plays

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canadiens

Capitals

Alex TuchGoals2
Ilya ProtasAssists2
Alex TuchPoints3

Scoring summary

P318:21Nick Suzuki Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (6)4–5
P317:05Alex Tuch Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none3–5
P312:29Justin Holl Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (4), Alex Ovechkin (2)3–4
P212:58Josh Anderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3)3–3
P26:16Alex Tuch Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: none2–3
P119:34Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (3), Jordan Kyrou (2)2–2
P111:15Lane Hutson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (2), Noah Dobson (2)2–1
P17:56Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Hutson (3), Alex Tuch (1)1–1
P14:29Josh Anderson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (2)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

P111:15Lane Hutson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Zachary Bolduc (2), Noah Dobson (2)MTL 2 – 1 WSH · MTL 50% → 66% +16MTL 50% → 66%+16 pts
P119:34Ivan Miroshnichenko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (3), Jordan Kyrou (2)MTL 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 33% → 50% +17WSH 33% → 50%+17 pts
P26:16Alex Tuch Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 50% → 69% +19WSH 50% → 69%+19 pts
P212:58Josh Anderson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Newhook (3)MTL 3 – 3 WSH · MTL 29% → 50% +21MTL 29% → 50%+21 pts
P312:29Justin Holl Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Protas (4), Alex Ovechkin (2)MTL 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 50% → 85% +35WSH 50% → 85%+35 pts

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 50%

Toss-upHit

MTL 50%WSH 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market: WSH 50%; ML MTL -110 / WSH -110
Pre-line forecast: WSH 58%; Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings: WSH 54%
Ratings vs. market: +4.0 pts; WSH: Elo 54.0%, market 50.0%
Fair odds: WSH -100; MTL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection: MTL 3.3 – 3.3 WSH; Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

Factor	MTL	WSH	Why
Team rating	1522	1523	Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field	—	+35	Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest	−30	−30	WSH and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies	−8	−16	MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts)
Elo ratings	WSH +28 Elo		WSH 54.0%
Market-implied ratings	WSH 58.8%		Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecast	WSH 57.8%		20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
Forecast	WSH 50.0%		Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →

Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
MTL	Stat	WSH
15th of 323.2	Goals scored	3.215th of 32
23rd of 323.7	Goals allowed	3.015th of 32
21st of 32−0.5	Margin	+0.217th of 32
10th of 3252.0%	Shot share	47.5%24th of 32
24th of 3287.7%	Save percentage	90.9%7th of 32
11th of 321–1	Road vs home	2–18th of 32
12th of 321507	Opponent Elo	15351st of 32
11th of 321522	Elo rating	152310th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanadiensCapitals

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Canadiens: last 5

Capitals: last 5

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This season	MTL	WSH
Puck line	1–5	3–3
Last 10	1–5	3–3
Favorite	0–4	2–1
Underdog	1–1	1–2
Overs–unders	4–2	3–3
Overs–unders, last 10	4–2	3–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MTL 5–9 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.

Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast