Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Jayden StrubleGoals1
- Nils HoglanderAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Penguins- Ville KoivunenGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Rickard RakellPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:44Ville Koivunen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (4), Kris Letang (6)2–3
- P318:54Rickard Rakell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Erik Karlsson (11)2–2
- P26:40Jayden Struble Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (1)2–1
- P20:18Connor Dewar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (1)1–1
- P19:24Steven Stamkos Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Matthew Wood (2), Ryan O'Reilly (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:24Steven Stamkos Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Matthew Wood (2), Ryan O'Reilly (4)NSH 1 – 0 PIT · NSH 47% → 63% +16NSH 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P20:18Connor Dewar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elmer Soderblom (1)NSH 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 35% → 53% +18PIT 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P26:40Jayden Struble Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (1)NSH 2 – 1 PIT · NSH 48% → 67% +19NSH 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P318:54Rickard Rakell Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Erik Karlsson (11)NSH 2 – 2 PIT · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:44Ville Koivunen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (4), Kris Letang (6)NSH 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 50% → >99% +49PIT 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Penguins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML NSH +105 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- NSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈49 weighted starts) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | — | −9 | Key absences: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust |
| Elo ratings | PIT +55 Elo | PIT 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.8% | Shot share | 49.3%17th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 88.4%20th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 6th of 321514 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 32 |
| 27th of 321473 | Elo rating | 149617th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–4 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–4 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.