Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers
Penguins- Nick RobertsonGoals2
- Connor DewarAssists2
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:34Nick Robertson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (3), Blake Lizotte (4)0–4
- P31:40Evgeni Malkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (3), Spencer Stastney (2)0–3
- P29:59Hendrix Lapierre Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (3), Evgeni Malkin (3)0–2
- P115:19Nick Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (2), Kris Letang (5)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:19Nick Robertson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (2), Kris Letang (5)FLA 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 51% → 67% +16PIT 51% → 67%+16 pts
- P29:59Hendrix Lapierre Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (3), Evgeni Malkin (3)FLA 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 70% → 85% +15PIT 70% → 85%+15 pts
- P31:40Evgeni Malkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (3), Spencer Stastney (2)FLA 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 91% → 98% +7PIT 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P317:34Nick Robertson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (3), Blake Lizotte (4)FLA 0 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML FLA -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- FLA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | FLA: Cooper Black (no track record yet) · PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Injuries | −3 | −3 | Key absences: Bryan Rust, Brad Marchand |
| Elo ratings | PIT +40 Elo | PIT 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 32 |
| 11th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.828th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 49.6%17th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 87.4%27th of 32 |
| 14th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 32 |
| 24th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 15089th of 32 |
| 14th of 321508 | Elo rating | 149217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 5–4 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.