Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Tommy NovakAssists2
- Tommy NovakPoints2
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists2
- Mark StonePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:47Brett Howden Goal (4), assists: William Karlsson (3)2–6
- P34:43Evgeni Malkin Goal (5) Poke, assists: Tommy Novak (4), Kris Letang (4)2–5
- P211:17Shea Theodore Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (6), Mitch Marner (9)1–5
- P27:05Trevor Connelly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none1–4
- P25:54Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tommy Novak (3), Erik Karlsson (9)1–3
- P117:46Mark Stone Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Connelly (3), Mitch Marner (8)0–3
- P14:02Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (13), Mark Stone (7)0–2
- P11:06Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (12), Mark Stone (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:06Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (12), Mark Stone (6)PIT 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 66% → 78% +12VGK 66% → 78%+12 pts
- P14:02Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (13), Mark Stone (7)PIT 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 78% → 87% +10VGK 78% → 87%+10 pts
- P117:46Mark Stone Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Connelly (3), Mitch Marner (8)PIT 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 89% → 95% +6VGK 89% → 95%+6 pts
- P25:54Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Tommy Novak (3), Erik Karlsson (9)PIT 1 – 3 VGK · PIT 4% → 10% +6PIT 4% → 10%+6 pts
- P27:05Trevor Connelly Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: nonePIT 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 90% → 96% +6VGK 90% → 96%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 66%
- ML PIT +180 / VGK -218
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- VGK: Elo 66.4%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -192
- PIT +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.8 – 3.7 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −1 | PIT: Sergei Murashov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +118 Elo | VGK 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.03rd of 32 |
| 19th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.46th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.62nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 54.8%6th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 25th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 32 |
| 12th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 146331st of 32 |
| 16th of 321497 | Elo rating | 15434th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.